Metaculus - As of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans: 46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. Histogram.

 
MetaculusMetaculus - May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3.

Mar 29, 2018 · While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition. Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing …If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. The relevant question has the following resolution criteria: For these purposes we will thus define "an artificial general …About. https://github.com/casens5. Experience. Metaculus. 2 years. Frontend Developer. Jan 2023 - Present 1 year 3 months. Santa Monica, California, United …Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ...The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.As of 12 March 2021, I am officially retired from Metaculus: I won't be forecasting on new questions and I won't be updating my existing forecasts. Expect my brier and log scores to deteriorate rapidly. I continue to be a big fan of Metaculus and the forecasting community—I just lack the time to participate regularly.Prediction markets. Manifold Market seems to think, that there is an 62% chance that GPT-5 will come out before 2025. Similarly, Metaculus puts the announcement date of GPT-5 to Sept 2024: [2] So it seems like the forecasting sites expect a strong deviation from the historical trend. Note, that if GPT-5 takes as long as GPT-4 did, we …Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ... About Metaculus. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that ... Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.Metaculus and MQL5 had the highest errors on these forecasts. Time Is Of The Essence. For a majority of the indicators, excluding GDP and Retail Sales, Metaculus provided forecasts an average of 36 days before competitors. A regression analysis did not reveal a statistically significant relationship between …How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance.In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang.This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. The relevant question has the following resolution criteria: For these purposes we will thus define "an artificial general … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. American Values 2024 said in a news release they have gathered the necessary signatures to secure ballot access for Kennedy in Arizona and Georgia, two states that helped President Joe Biden defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election by very narrow margins. “The grassroots energy and momentum give us …Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... Currently the Metaculus community prediction is 61% that they will hold additional territory on the 1 st of January 2024. Given what we’ve learnt about how Russian capabilities have been overestimated to date, this, again, seems high to me (I …Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …Community Insights Reveal Forecasts' Key Drivers. Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence.In the AI Progress Essay Contest, we open the floor for investigations of predictions regarding the future of AI, especially as it relates to the prospects, timing and impacts of potentially transformative advanced AI systems. Our aim is for systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years.Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.Metaculus is a platform for forecasting future events and testing your accuracy. Join the Economist 2022 Tournament and compete with other forecasters on questions related to economics, politics, and society. Earn points, prizes, and recognition for your predictions. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and prediction markets, where users can propose, vote, and comment on various topics. Learn how to use Metaculus's …If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured a cover story calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec 11, 2021.The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...May 24, 2022 · To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The science. Online prediction markets are an extension and specific use of the “efficient markets hypothesis” in investing, in which everyone’s … Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.The Metaculus community expects this to happen in the USA sometime in early 2022, probably January, February, or March (median: 10 February). Given the Metaculus community's expected % per-day growth rate of Omicron and how long it has taken for previous variants to take off, I largely agree …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth in G7 countries in the respective years, according to Our World In Data. For example, for 2020 this weighted average was 80.3 (whereas the unweighted average was 81.5). The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, …We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co …The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.Today we're excited to launch a new question type on Metaculus: Multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election. For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must equal 100% to be a valid forecast.Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ...Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...Mar 31, 2022 · In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang. Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …May 24, 2022 · To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ... The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so …This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...Community Insights Reveal Forecasts' Key Drivers. Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence. Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO. There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize.The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...Robert de Neufville is a superforecaster and former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes a Substack on forecasting called Telling the Future. A reading of this essay is featured on the Metaculus Journal Podcast here. Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked in …By Peter Mühlbacher, Research Scientist at Metaculus, and Peter Scoblic, Director of Nuclear Risk at Metaculus. Metaculus is a forecasting platform where an active community of thousands of forecasters regularly make probabilistic predictions on topics of interest ranging from scientific progress to geopolitics. …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total …Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories.Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ...Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. …The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ...Fivr guys, Yucaipa animal hospital, Textnow.com, Styves dc, El taco nazo, Michaels of brooklyn, Walmart waukegan, March air base, Total med solutions, Sumter sc, Niki's west, The juicery, Antique rose emporium, Value city furniture lexington ky

Metaculus is as much a record/evaluation of past predictions as it is a tracker of current information on a subject. Exceptions to this rule can be made in some scenarios, such as tracking COVID-19 deaths while we’re 1 year into the pandemic (self-explanatory), or if a question needs to be written/opened quickly, such as an outbreak of .... Saola shoes

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meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that help …American Values 2024 said in a news release they have gathered the necessary signatures to secure ballot access for Kennedy in Arizona and Georgia, two states that helped President Joe Biden defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election by very narrow margins. “The grassroots energy and momentum give us … meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ... Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.Metaculus Pro Forecasters will predict each metric alongside the crowd. A grant from the Future Fund makes this project possible, and is greatly appreciated. Our thanks also to the forecasting community for contributing to a greater understanding of humanity's near- and long-term future.The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total …Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...Welcome to the ACX 2024 Predictions Contest! Share your predictions for the year ahead on questions spanning geopolitics, AI developments, space exploration, and more! Forecast before January 22nd, contribute to accurate aggregate forecasts on important 2024 outcomes, and compete for $2,500 in prizes! What began as Scott …We can start with estimated global annual spending on computer hardware, which is roughly $1 trillion, and growing at a rate of about 3-4% annually ( Statistica ). A common estimate of compute capacity is about 3 years worth of this spending - roughly $3 trillion. For comparison, world GDP is ~$90 trillion and growing at ~3% annually.provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. The relevant question has the following resolution criteria: For these purposes we will thus define "an artificial general … The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... Leaderboards. Learn more about Metaculus Medals. Duration: Time Period: Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3.How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance.AGI Outcomes. Questions about the long-term outcomes for humanity with the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) over the next century. Looking for another lens? See the future of AI according to Metaculus.This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ...Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school. The first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!Metaculus is a platform for forecasting future events and testing your accuracy. Join the Economist 2022 Tournament and compete with other forecasters on questions related to economics, politics, and society. Earn points, prizes, and recognition for your predictions.The Metaculus community currently thinks that quantum computers will factor the first previously unfactored RSA number in around 2046: Breaking 256 bit ECC is a problem that would require roughly the same amount of quantum computing technology and hardware, so the forecast on the following question should not be too different unless we …If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ...May 24, 2022 · To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ... The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ... Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Dec 19, 2023 · This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ... On Metaculus' account, these three collectively take up 27% of the total risk faced this century. Forecasters are worried about the existential risk of Artificial Intelligence Recently, some philosophers have pointed out that complete extinction might be of unique moral and civilizational importance compared to those catastrophes from which we ...If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school. The first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. …Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and prediction markets, where users can propose, vote, and comment on various topics. Learn how to use Metaculus's …As of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans: 46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. Histogram. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Metaculus Scoring System. Note: This page is about the obsolete Metaculus Points. In November 2023, we switched to using Baseline and Peer scores, but this page …Metaculus is a technology company that aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. It hosts forecasting competitions, publishes research, and collaborates with partners on various …Here's a plot of the Metaculus Strong AGI predictions over time (code by Rylan Schaeffer). The x-axis is the data of the prediction, the y-axis is the predicted year of strong AGI at the time. The blue line is a linear fit. The red dashed line is a y = x line.In the AI Progress Essay Contest, we open the floor for investigations of predictions regarding the future of AI, especially as it relates to the prospects, timing and impacts of potentially transformative advanced AI systems. Our aim is for systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years. Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …By Peter Mühlbacher, Research Scientist at Metaculus, and Peter Scoblic, Director of Nuclear Risk at Metaculus. Metaculus is a forecasting platform where an active community of thousands of forecasters regularly make probabilistic predictions on topics of interest ranging from scientific progress to geopolitics. …Mar 15, 2023 · If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4. Biden's approval rating has remained from 45% to 40% from September 2021 to June 2022, and the US Inflation rate reached 8.5% in 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris, often speculated as being likely to run in 2024, has had a net -10% approval rating from January to June 2022. As of June 2022, no other candidates have expressed intent to run, and ...Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.Metaculus has developed its own style and norms for writing and submitting questions. Heeding these best-practices will be appreciated by Metaculus forecasters and Moderators alike. Questions which don't follow these best-practices may be rejected. Write in a neutral and objective tone.These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3.About Metaculus. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate …Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so …Metaculus is as much a record/evaluation of past predictions as it is a tracker of current information on a subject. Exceptions to this rule can be made in some scenarios, such as tracking COVID-19 deaths while we’re 1 year into the pandemic (self-explanatory), or if a question needs to be written/opened quickly, such as an outbreak of ...Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.9 10. Probability distribution of the Metaculus community prediction of the implied doubling-time (in number of days) is over the period from 20th of Jan till to the last …The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.on Aug 13, 2022, 12:14 PM. NASA prepares return to the moon with new mission set for August launch. Fifty-three years after the historic landing of Apollo 11 in 1969, the new mission to orbit the moon is tentatively set to begin on Aug. 29, according to agency officials. Artemis I will be an uncrewed test-launch …Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …. Cobra stone, Streamsong golf resort, Acura of abington, Boxcar betty's, Balboa hospital san diego, Seminole county clerk of, Weaver auto parts, Lowes southern pines, Log still distillery.